Sunday, March 26, 2006

A Time cover doesn´t make it wrong

OK, the prediction of a crisis on the cover of a newsweekly is the classic indiction that the prediction is wrong. The classic example is Business Week´s August 13th, 1979 issue titled "The Death of Equities," which predicted the stock market to be a terrible place to invest in the coming decades. The graph below shows what actually happened.
Nevertheless, just because environmentalists and news weeklies predict a crisis does not necessarily mean that the crisis will never happen.

That´s how I feel about Time´s cover story this week about global warming, ¨Be Worried, Be Very Worried" I am presumming that the title is meant to be serious -- not a campy self-parody of media fear mongering. On the presumption that they are serious, I still think that they are right.